Tahoe Real Estate Market Prediction for the Year
It should be a decent year for real estate sales here in Lake Tahoe. The volume of homes sold in the first quarter is down but the trend is activity is increasing. Typically here in Tahoe the spring is the beginning of the active sales season. I just listened to a meeting from David Battany, EVP, Capital Markets at Guild Mortgage. Previously he was with Fannie Mae for 22 years, serving as director of Single-Family Business so he knows a thing or two about real estate markets. His take on the subject is our economy is in somewhat of a holding pattern due to the Iran War. Once it ends in 30-60 days (his prediction) the emotional instability of it all will settle. Many folks are in a holding pattern and waiting to see what our Federal Reserves will do next.
Interest Rates
David Battany predicts that our mortgage rates will stay around 6.2% this year overall. He doubts interest rates will ever get as low as we say during Covid when the Feds pumped money into the economy to stimulate it due to major instant job loss. Feds are meeting today as they do about every two months and he predicts nothing will happen with rates. The average interest rate for the past 50 years was 7.7%. He things we could someday see a 4% interest rate but most likely they will hold around 6% for awhile.
We can only look at the Facts
So far this year in the first quarter of 2026 we have had 82 sold properties including single family homes, condos and townhomes. In the first quarter in 2025 we had a total of 82. So we are off to a slower start then last year but things are still moving. Currently we have 37 condos/townhomes and 102 single family homes for sale. The majority of the pending sales, 44 in total, now are homes $800,000 and higher. Of course if we get lucky and rates drop there is a good chance sales will pick up dramatically.
Should you buy a House now?
David’s sentiment about this subject is when you purchase a home with the 30 year fixed rate loan its always a good time to buy. You lock in your rate and can always refinance if and when rates drop for little cost. This protects you in the interest rates do go up and always gives you the option to refinance. Once of the Feds talking points at today’s meeting will be about reducing costs for future refinances which would be great for the consumer. Looking at history home prices are going up and most likely will continue to do so-graph above.. Of course in life there is no guarantees but homeownership seems to be a smart move. At least your money gets put into your own home and you control your destiny of having to move.